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I'm not going to lay down my own curve on this one, just shift the BAM Medium (yellow line) west a hair towards the NOGAPS track, and lose the hook at the end.

Sounds like the Jersey Contingent need the rain and wind anyways.
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For those of you who like, as NPR put it in their interview of a handful of 10 year olds yesterday in preparation for the new HP book, "Wild speculation," here's the way-in-advance Emily Edition of the FFF.
FFF for Emily )
Not feeling too confident about the strength projection, since the fast movement is throwing me off. Might build up beaucoup strength and whomp ass there, a'la Gilbert (which only had the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the western hemisphere), since it's taking a similar track. I expect it to blow out a fair bit after that landfall, maybe all the way down to TS if it's a prolonged overland segment, but to get a little more organized in the western gulf, and make things wet and messy from Galveston up to the TX/LA border, and maybe as far east as Baton Rouge.

Maybe a second FFF edition for this one will make an appearance this weekend.

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