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In short: "New Orleans and Gulfport - DUCK"

Yeah, this looks kind of nasty, as in Cat 3 or 4 at landfall over the tip of the Mississippi delta, then on to the mainland by the LA/MI border. Lotta warm water in the gulf to drive this sucker.

Hunker down. No shit.
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I think the models are pretty good on this one, even though it's still nice and early. I expect something between the GFS and GFDL (blue and pink) tracks, with a bit more eastern hook at the end, bringing Fay mostly up the west coast just offshore as a strongish Cat 1 before heading inland over Perry/Gainesville/Jax. If it crosses the penninsula quickly enough, it might reform back over the Atlantic, but just keep heading out to sea.

Yep, it's time to HUNKER DOWN!

ETA: I seem to have linked to a changing image. Shit. My track prediction (as of 11am EDT 16aug08) remains what it was earlier, bearing up the west coast and being a lot of rain and moderate to high wind and strong surf before making landfall north of Tampa, up towards the big bend portion of the state.
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FFF calls for Dean to remain close to the BAMM track[1] as far as it goes, and to continue northwest until curving north, making landfall by grazing the NC coast before giving those assholes in Washington the long, sloppy, wet blowjob that would have gotten them out of office so much sooner than their current asshattery.

Expect breathless media coverage and dramatic visuals before Dean hooks back out over the Atlantic, giving the northeast seaboard a good rinse.

Tonight's forecast for GMBAN calls for continued subtlety and tact, with scattered snark.

[1] The BAMM track as of 2pm 8/14/07, not the revised one - where it started hooking north in time to run over Puerto Rico as a Cat 2. We here at FFF HQ stand by our "way fuckin' early" track predictions/projections, none of this "revise it every three hours" shit for us.
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No graphics, posting from [ profile] aishlynn's parents' place.

Ernesto will track over the west end of Jamaica as a TS/Cat1, then move on into the GoM, heading for Corpus Christi, before curving towards the north and making eventual landfall (strengthening over the GoM to Cat3), but weakening slightly to make landfall around Gulfport MS as a Cat2, then soaking the hell out of MS, AL, & GA. Much more of a rain event than a wind event.
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I'm not going to lay down my own curve on this one, just shift the BAM Medium (yellow line) west a hair towards the NOGAPS track, and lose the hook at the end.

Sounds like the Jersey Contingent need the rain and wind anyways.
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For those of you who like, as NPR put it in their interview of a handful of 10 year olds yesterday in preparation for the new HP book, "Wild speculation," here's the way-in-advance Emily Edition of the FFF.
FFF for Emily )
Not feeling too confident about the strength projection, since the fast movement is throwing me off. Might build up beaucoup strength and whomp ass there, a'la Gilbert (which only had the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the western hemisphere), since it's taking a similar track. I expect it to blow out a fair bit after that landfall, maybe all the way down to TS if it's a prolonged overland segment, but to get a little more organized in the western gulf, and make things wet and messy from Galveston up to the TX/LA border, and maybe as far east as Baton Rouge.

Maybe a second FFF edition for this one will make an appearance this weekend.