Fearless Freak Forecast - Fay Edition

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I think the models are pretty good on this one, even though it's still nice and early. I expect something between the GFS and GFDL (blue and pink) tracks, with a bit more eastern hook at the end, bringing Fay mostly up the west coast just offshore as a strongish Cat 1 before heading inland over Perry/Gainesville/Jax. If it crosses the penninsula quickly enough, it might reform back over the Atlantic, but just keep heading out to sea.

Yep, it's time to HUNKER DOWN!

ETA: I seem to have linked to a changing image. Shit. My track prediction (as of 11am EDT 16aug08) remains what it was earlier, bearing up the west coast and being a lot of rain and moderate to high wind and strong surf before making landfall north of Tampa, up towards the big bend portion of the state.

Comments

[theonebob.livejournal.com]

Saint Don of the Wind says "go west, young man." I am thinking Alabama gets it.

[dj-spider.livejournal.com]

I grew up in the Caribbean, so Hurricane tracking is an unofficial hobby! :) I've lost count of how many tropical storms and hurricanes we've closed up shop for down there (Yay, days off school! and later, Yay, reason to drink cases of beer in the dark!) And having lived through Marilyn (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Marilyn) in the mid 90s, I have a morbid curiosity about them....

I dunno, I'm going to wait to see what happens over Cuba -- depending on the geography where it crosses, it could break it up a bit, but the problem will still come once it hits the Gulf -- if it slows down, it could pick up strength again, depending on how organized it is after making landfall. But I can see a Cat 1 on the GFS track easily, but a little less on the GFDL.

[fross.livejournal.com]

woot for tropical depressions, have one on me (topped with 151, of course)

stay safe.

[timswar.livejournal.com]

Don't forget to raid the grocery stores for water, milk, and bread!

(Well, that's what they do in Central NC, in Eastern NC they prefer the "Hurricane? That calls for beer!" method)

[etcet.livejournal.com]

yeah, we're of the "hunker down with booze and beef jerky" mindset here, too.

[etcet.livejournal.com]

no doubt. i'll be at work, too, unless gov't offices are closed (working for a credit union, if they close, we close, i think)

[y2kdragon.livejournal.com]

Duck, squishy.

[kat1031.livejournal.com]

I'm jealous. I was hoping for some stormage while we were there.

[sloot.livejournal.com]

it would've made for a good story, but it would've fucked shit up seriously.

[kat1031.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I know. But we don't get a lot of storms here and it's one thing I really miss about living near a coast.

Desert weather is boring. It's hot. It will continue to be hot for the next month or so. It's sunny. It will continue to be sunny for the rest of the year. Must be the world's most boring place to be a meteorologist.

[etcet.livejournal.com]

2004, fetish con's hotel lost power from hurricane jeanne - we ended up hanging out by candle light w/ thomas from brute force leather & a couple of his models (inc. baobh).

it was awful, really. having them model corsets, drinking the wine before the ice melted and it got warm, stuff involving wax... *hand, staple, forehead*

:-)

[txtriffidranch.livejournal.com]

The last time I was caught inside a hurricane, it was on a family vacation up the East Coast, with Hurricane Agnes following us all the way up to Washington, DC. It was bad enough getting to the Smithsonian only to have it evacuated a half-hour later (to the point where the Hope Diamond was being bundled up to be transported out of the city if DC was hit), but my mother is insanely sensitive to motion sickness, and any view of the ocean left her puking over the side of our station wagon for the next 1000 miles. Between the stormage, the lack of knowledge about where to do, and the smell of vomit every time we'd stop at a rest station, I was praying that Tampa wouldn't be hit with a storm during Convergence.

[txtriffidranch.livejournal.com]

Shit. I know you're hearing a lot of "Take care of yourself" notes right now, but at least one guy out in Texas means it.

[scar4711.livejournal.com]

well.. hell... Drudgereport is saying Fay is heading your way now....

but then again.. anything can happen between now and then... i hope it diverts for your guys sake..

[etcet.livejournal.com]

i wouldn't trust matt drudge to tell me which direction to look for the sun in the morning, man. no way do i think he knows which way the wind blows. ;-)